Ğlobal שּׂarming

I called it global warming to attract more attention. From here one i'll referr to it as the more accurate term '(global) climate change'.

I realised that we don't have any other topics on this topic, yet its one which will undoubtedly affect the vast majority of us (not so much specific warming, but the possible climate instability).

Basically, just share your thoughts on it. Seeing as its a current big thing, it pays to know as much about it as possible.

In the interest of avoiding war, try to keep an open mind and don't create controversy over it, but by all means, debate


Anyway, my view

I've been looking into it a lot recently, and I have a large interest in it. Made me appreciate how much debate there is around it and how many factors are involved.

The problem with extracting information from sources (especially the internet) is there is so much social backing intertwined with the scientists. People chose their viewpoint before getting the figures, so that they're aiming their findings to their hypothesis. There are few scientists with an open mind.

The major thing to consider is the extensive list of variables which come into play in global temperature change.

To mention a few:
- CO2 Sinks in the ocean
- Greenhouse gases released as ice melts
- Thermal expansion of oceans
- Ocean currents (e.g. N.A.D stopping with less salinity)
- Solar activity (sun flares)
- Low + high altitude clouds
- Changing albedo levels
- Urban development
- Supervolcanic erruptiond

Its such a complex subject to deal with. There's been a period of warming of the past 100 years (roughly), although temperature has plateau'd for the past 8 years.

This is how temperature has varied over 10,000's years, even millions. With ice ages followed by periods of warming.



Its inevitable that we will soon turn into an ice age, but the major question is what (relative) effect do humans have on global temperature change. Although we're part of a natural cycle, deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels (especially coal) realses a large amount of CO2. If the climate does reverse, how will the CO2 be cycled back? Some may be restored when ice forms, but other carbon sinks take a long long time to take effect.

Although thousands of scientists research the topic in greath depth, climate is still relatively poorly understood due to the scale of it. I can't formulate my own opinion because i'm still understanding the variables and their relative effects. Its clear we're in a period of climate change, but we will have to see what way it will go.

However, I strongly believe that we should still push energy efficincy and clean technology, it does no harm and can benefit us greatly in the long run.

So yeah, share your opinions / knowledge / predictions and listen to other people's.

I'll probably intervene quite a bit

I personally think the earth is cooling and that it is a cycle. Kind of like when the Mediterranean sea froze and Venice' canals froze in, what was it 1300-1600AD?

But yea. Its a cycle and perfectly natural.

P.S- I dont even thing al gore belives in it, he just is using it as a way to get rich imo.

Now, looking at that graph and everything it looks like we are headed into an ice age. Ok.

Now, from history, we know that when the climate gets cooler, crops don't grow as well, which means famine.

If we assume that so-called "greenhouse gases" do work to warm up the atmosphere, then I would think it would be to our advantage to, as the climate cools, add*more* greenhouse gases into the atmosphere so that we do get global warming, and thereby stave off the ice age for a while. Now, obviously, pollution per say is bad, but, like Tnuac said, a lot of it is stored under the ocean - you would simply need to carefully disrupt the ocean just enough to release the desired amount of Co2 to prevent global cooling.
I think a bit too much global warming wouldn't be nearly as bad as global cooling.

Yes, my view is cynical, but what did you expect?


-RobbieThe1st

Well natural desasters like valcano eruptions don't help. They produce more CO2 in 5 minutes than cars etc produce in like 5 years.

I'm a strong believer in global warming.
It's astonishing that people can be so skeptical.
Always better to be safe than sorry.

If you are skeptical on Global Warming i suggest you read a book called Heat.

I have also done a fair bit of research into Global Warming and to be perfectly honest my conclusion was this. We have failed, based on our current consumption of fossil fuels, the levels we would need to cut emissions by in order to prevent global warming is not possible. I

f the earth begins to heat up much more (As little as an average of 2.0C) then plants will begin to EMIT CO2 because during hot times they take in less CO2 from the atmosphere for Photosynthisis, and respire at a faster rate emmitiong more CO2. So as you can see that means that the rate of CO2 in the atmosphere will begin to grow. Refer to this article if you want proof:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4269066.stm

Another interesting fact is that Exxon Mobil, directly funds many organization that monitor climate change. Something i find slightly suspicious.

Well i dont know much but i think that Al gore should run for president

Kiwi, scientists claim there was a significant medieval warming period in 1000-1300 AD followed by a small ice age in 1400-1900. Of course its difficult to find a true figure because it depends it you mean global or Europe.

Robbie, we will certainly hit an ice age very soon (in geological timescale that is), but its a matter of when and how temperature will vary up to it. Warming can be just as bad if not worse than cooling though. The heat has many effects.
- Desertification rendering soil useless
- Increase in insect attack
- Very poor availibility of water
- Increase in low-level ozone, killing plants
- More information here
The ideal is a balance, and particularly a range of temperatures from relatively temperatre ones (e.g. UK) to tropical/meditteranean ones. It is a very poor assumption that pumping more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is a solution. There are many inherent flaws.
- CO2 is not nearly as effective greenhouse gas in comparison
- In some cases, temperature has been seen to rise before CO2
- CO2 concentration has increased HUGELY in the past 100 years, with no change in temperature in the past 8 years when CO2 levels have rocketed (see the 'hockey stick graph')
- Climate is a homeostatic process. It will reverse changes. Even if we do manage to warm the earth up (even though this would be disasterous), you can cause instability. The effects cannot be truly predicted, but it sure won't be helpful to us.

Maddness990, volcanic erruptions have been occuring all the time, but the past 100 years has shown a hugely exponential increase in CO2 , relative to the industrialisation and explosive increase in the use of cars. Volcanoes may release a lot of greenhouse gases (predominantly water vapour), but its no match for the combustion of fossil fuels. You should see the CO2 graph as well. If the huge recent increase was caused by volcanic erruption, we would've known about it. There is no evidence to suggest a rapid increase in volcanic activity, the convection currents in the mantle have not changed. I'd suggest reading this.

Lordy, many people are skeptical because they cling to individual findings instead of doing the real research. There is little solid empirical evidence of a future rise in temperature, added to the fact that climate is such a hugely underated system that has a lot of unknown variables. However, as you say whatever process will take place in the next 20+ years, there's no reason to keep developing clean technology and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Max, thanks for the information on CO2 emitting by plants. I want to look into it further than the BBC media, but it will have a significant effect (less so after deforestation of course) in the acceleration. As for Mobil I havent heard about that, I'll look into it.

Lordy, your idea of 'climate machines' sounds fantastic. Can you go on to explain how they work exactly?



(To everyone - don't be put off with all the writing )

My personaly thoughts, honestly?

I don't think much of it, really. Until I see something amazing happen I'm not entirely convinced. I can say I don't take any one side on this.

Firelion, its that attitude (no offence, just saying ) that many people, especially those in Government, are taking. When something 'amazing' happens, we're already at the point of doom. The warming effect can accelerate rapidly (due to many factors), and even if warming isn't significant we can see a great instability in the whole world climate.

If you view the sources and their credibility, you'll find that its not just a simple 50/50 debate; the top scientific organisations (NAS, AAAS, USCAP, and these basically are at the top) conclude that global warming is occuring and we're contributing to it.

Don't know what this amazing event you want is. Drought? Widespread forest fires? Violent storms? Flooding? Extreme winters? Once you're at this stage, the future aint pretty.

Kiwi, its the current times that we should be worrying about. What happened back 100's of millions of years ago doesn't matter to us. We know from that that the climate temperatures go up and down, and that's without the release of the vast amounts of carbon stored which we are releasing every single day. The climate can survive on its own, but we're the ones who will suffer.

You're assigning the prefix "I personally think" to what could be one of the most poorly understand topics on our globe, and one with massive consequnces. Its dangerous when you're blind to the options. If there was a local war emerging, or a tornado about to hit your house, you would want to take action. Saying 'Its a cycle and perfectly natural' is missing the point completely! Of course its a cycle, but its a cycle which we're not used to being involved in. The earth will survive it fine, but we can suffer badly if we aren't aware of it. No scientist denies that CO2 increases global temperatures, and those temperatures can increase along with the destability that follows.

Robbie, the 'theory' you heard there is the most substancial theory in the whole climate change topic, made by the largest and most respected organisations out there. (If someone can give me the name of an organisation larger or equivalent to NAS, AAAS, and USCAP, who deny it altogether, i'm welcome to learn of it).

Its nice to think we can sustain the balance between warm and cold but its not as easy as that. We can certainly set change going, but once its going, its difficult to stop. It'd be very hard to create more greenhouse gases than we do now. If we do, it'll have many consequences - smog, low-level ozone, acid rain, etc etc. Plus, the evidence generally suggests that warming will proceed the next ice age.

There's far too many people who retreat into their shell when 'climate change' is mentioned. They think "Bleh, its fake, I saw that scientist Mr. Iknowitall" say its fake so it is. Its a huge debate so its obvious its not going to happen and we dont have to worry. If it does happen, it won't be us affected" Its that misinformation that could cause the wipe out of the current human species. No, I'm not exadurating. Of course there's many other worries in life - supervolcanoes, meteriorites, nuclear war, overpopulation etc. That's no reason to ignore problems and say 'meh, we'll die anyway, why bother?' We were put here to survive.

If you're thinking "bleehabadabdwbef too many words, i won't bother worrying about it" you need to wake up.

What do you propose I do? -- Is my point.

Honestly speaking, makind has less power than they choose to believe... Genius or not.

K.

Just so you don't get the wrong impression - It's not that I don't care, it's that my priorities put my personal life above "the end of the world" (no pun intended).
I'm an Aussie at heart. To me, that means I can have fun being human and appreciate the enviroment at the same time. I'm no litter bug.

But ~ Yeah. I understand where you're coming from.

I can almost guarantee you that some form of climate change will have an effect on you. Whether its rising sea level, falling seal level, droughts, floods, fires, water shortages, food shortages, energy shortages, among much more.

Its completely understandable trying to steer clear of something complex and seemingly eventfulness. However, we could be the first generation to face the worst consequences of it (scientific research on it is increasing by the minute). The last ice age (pretty much ice cover everywhere in the world) happened only 7'C (13?'F) cooler than temperatures today - even the smallest changes can have huge consequences.

Even if you don't get a full understanding of it, its wise to know the dangers of it and ensure that you're not caught out unprepared. The majority of scientists are in agreeal with man-made global warming and are calling for action to be taken against it. They know what they're doing - if they say we're in trouble, its likely something's going to happen soon.

It's not the matter of when the cool down is going to happen but how high the temperature is going to rise before the cool down actually happens. The changes in temperature in past times have been 3 degrees change at most but what if we got to 5+ degree change. How much of an effect will that have!